Solar cannibalisation · curtailment (出力制御) · duck curve
Renewables Analytics
Solar capture price
13.74¥/kWh
capture rate 82% of baseload 16.73
Wind capture price
17.07¥/kWh
capture rate 102%
Midday vs evening
11.4 / 28.7¥/kWh
floor hours 1 h · price↔VRE corr -0.33
Curtailed energy
3.4GWh
solar 3.4 · wind 0.1 · ratio 0.10%
Duck curve · Kyushu (九州)
Average 48-slot profile 2026-07-20 → 2026-09-19 (62 days): demand, net demand after VRE, solar, wind, price
- Area price
- Demand
- Net demand (after VRE)
- Solar
- Solar curtailed
- Wind
Daily capture rate & midday depression
Solar-weighted price ÷ time-weighted price · midday (10–14h) ÷ daily average
- Floor hours
- Midday/day ratio
- Solar capture rate
- Wind capture rate
Price vs VRE penetration
Average area price by solar+wind share of demand (per slot)
- Avg price ¥
- Floor share %
Daily curtailment & solar output
MWh curtailed (solar/wind) and solar peak MW
- Midday VRE share %
- Solar curtailed MWh
- Solar peak MW
- Wind curtailed MWh
All areas · 60 days
Composite risk index = 40% floor-price share + 40% curtailment ratio + 20% midday depression
| Area | Avg ¥ | Floor h | Floor % | Midday/Day | Solar capture ¥ | Solar capture rate | Wind capture rate | Curtail % | RE share | Risk idx | TSO data |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ■ Hokkaido 北海道 | 14.41 | 23.5 | 1.6% | 0.60 | 9.11 | 64% | 96% | 0.40% | 50% | 17 | → 09-13 |
| ■ Tohoku 東北 | 17.37 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.66 | 16.49 | 79% | 98% | 0.12% | 43% | 12 | → 09-18 |
| ■ Tokyo 東京 | 22.00 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.97 | 21.87 | 99% | 100% | 0.00% | 15% | 1 | → 09-19 |
| ■ Chubu 中部 | 22.25 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.92 | 20.18 | 91% | 94% | 0.00% | 24% | 3 | → 09-19 |
| ■ Hokuriku 北陸 | 19.97 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.96 | 19.63 | 98% | 96% | 0.00% | 35% | 1 | → 09-19 |
| ■ Kansai 関西 | 19.29 | 0.0 | 0.0% | 0.95 | 19.13 | 99% | 104% | 0.00% | 15% | 2 | → 09-19 |
| ■ Chugoku 中国 | 17.83 | 1.0 | 0.1% | 0.76 | 15.20 | 85% | 95% | 0.00% | 26% | 8 | → 09-19 |
| ■ Shikoku 四国 | 16.41 | 20.0 | 1.3% | 0.65 | 12.42 | 76% | 108% | 0.00% | 35% | 14 | → 09-19 |
| ■ Kyushu 九州 | 16.68 | 1.0 | 0.1% | 0.68 | 13.74 | 82% | 102% | 0.10% | 32% | 11 | → 09-19 |